AlphaDrift
Not financial advice. AlphaDrift is a personal project built for fun. We make no claims about the data accuracy or whether the underlying thesis holds up in practice.
Market Intelligence Dashboard

AlphaDrift

Turns macro data and market signals into actionable sector ETF guidance — and what it means for stocks you already own.

AlphaDrift identifies industry groups where short-term price momentum has diverged from long-term macro outlook. Drawing on Fed data, analyst ratings, and expert news sentiment — so you can buy the dip with conviction, and avoid catching falling knives.

Markets regularly overprice or underprice entire industry sectors based on short-term narratives. AlphaDrift tracks where the long-term macro outlook is heading independently of recent price movements — then surfaces the gap as an actionable trade signal.

01Scores all 25 industry groups on their 6–12 month fundamental outlook — built from analyst buy/hold/sell ratings and EPS revisions, Fed data including interest rates and credit spreads, and AI-assessed expert news and commentary. No price data used.
02Tracks price momentum and recent dips across all 25 groups — using ETF returns weighted across 1-day, 1-week, 1-month, and 3-month windows. Separate signals show where things are trending and where a short-term pullback has appeared.
03Identifies dominant economic themes, maps scenarios, and stress-tests with prediction market probabilities (Polymarket). Then surfaces opportunities where strong macro fundamentals meet short-term price dips, with AI-generated rationale.
04Map your own portfolio to the same framework, and get AI-generated rationale e.g. why did NVIDIA drop 3%.

How it works.

01

Macro Outlook

6–12 month view · all 25 GICS Industry Groups

Every morning, AlphaDrift scores all 25 GICS Industry Groups on a 0–100 scale — measuring where each group's macro outlook is heading over the next 6–12 months. This score is completely price-independent. It measures where the macro outlook is heading, not where price has been. Recent price performance is deliberately excluded — that's handled in the next step.

The score is composed of three independently weighted signals:

Macro Score =
+
+

For each of the 25 GICS Industry Groups, AlphaDrift finds the most targeted ETF for that group, fetches its top 5 holdings by weight, and pulls the current professional analyst ratings for each of those five stocks — buy, hold, or sell. Those ratings are averaged into a single consensus score, reflecting what full-time sector analysts currently expect for earnings and revenue over the next 12 months.

Walk-through example: Semiconductors
  1. Look up SOXX — the designated semiconductor ETF in the database
  2. Fetch SOXX's top 5 holdings: NVDA, AMD, MU, AMAT, AVGO
  3. Pull analyst buy / hold / sell ratings for each of those 5 stocks
  4. Average them — e.g. 86% buy ratings → consensus score: 70 out of 100 for Semiconductors
✦ AI-generated example

Analysts are broadly bullish — 78% buy ratings across top 5 constituents, with EPS estimates revised up 6% over the past 3 months.

Analyst Consensus summary · generated daily from live rating data
02

What's Moving Now

Today, this week, this month

Tracks which industry groups have been going up or down — completely independently of the macro scores above. Pure price signal: what has the market actually been doing to each group?

Multi-level heat maps

Price performance is displayed across three levels of granularity that you can drill into: broad market sectors, the 25 GICS Industry Groups, and individual industries within each group. Each level gives a progressively sharper view of where capital is flowing.

11 Sectors
25 Industry Groups
74 Industries
1-day · 7-day · 30-day

Toggle between timeframes to see whether momentum is building or reversing. A group that's up 8% on the month but flat on the week may be running out of steam. Each group links to an interactive price chart for deeper inspection.

Each group is tracked via its most targeted ETF — not a broad sector fund — so the signal reflects that specific slice of the market rather than being diluted across multiple themes.

Why is it moving?

For groups showing an unusual single-day move — significantly above their recent average daily range — an AI model generates a one-line explanation of the likely catalyst, drawn from news from the preceding 48 hours.

When two groups within the same sector diverge significantly — say Software up 2% while Semiconductors are down 3% within the same IT sector — a rotation callout surfaces this explicitly.

Why keep this separate: Price data is deliberately kept out of the macro outlook score. These two inputs must be calculated independently for the divergence signal in the next step to mean anything.
03

Opportunity Signal

The delta

When the macro outlook and recent price momentum diverge, that gap is the signal. Steps 1 and 2 are combined here to surface the strongest buy and sell candidates across all 25 groups.

Strong Buy signal

Macro outlook is strong but price has been weak. The market is underpricing the long-term view — a potential entry opportunity.

Sell / Avoid signal

Price has run up but macro outlook is weak. The market is overpricing the near-term narrative — a potential exit or avoid signal.

One table, all 25 Industry Groups

All 25 GICS Industry Groups are shown in a single sortable table. The top 5 buy opportunities are highlighted in green; the top 5 sell or avoid signals in red. Sort by macro score, momentum, or the combined opportunity score to view the landscape from different angles.

AI-generated rationale

For each top signal, an AI model writes a plain-language explanation of the divergence — the macro backdrop, the recent price behaviour, and what the opportunity or risk actually is.

✦ AI-generated example

Semiconductors carry a strong macro score driven by AI infrastructure demand and declining rates, but the group has underperformed by 9% over the past month on export control fears. The structural case hasn't changed — this looks like an entry opportunity on a short-term narrative overhang.

Opportunity Signal rationale · AI-generated per group
The trade: AlphaDrift recommends the most targeted ETF per group — expressing a sector view without individual stock risk or the dilution of a broad market fund.

Prediction Markets

What the crowd is pricing in

AlphaDrift uses an AI model to extract the dominant economic themes from the current macro landscape — rate trajectories, trade policy shifts, commodity supply disruptions, and similar forces shaping markets over the next 6–12 months. For each theme, it maps out plausible scenarios and identifies which GICS Industry Groups would benefit or suffer under each one, producing buy, caution, and avoid verdicts per sector.

To pressure-test those scenarios, the pipeline scans Polymarket — the largest prediction market — for real-money bets that map to each theme. It extracts tipping-point signals: the price, rate, or date where the crowd crosses 50% probability. These signals are surfaced alongside the scenario cards, giving you a market-derived probability check on each macro thesis.

✦ AI-generated example

Markets price a >60% chance of oil staying below $110 through March but reaching $120 by June. Fed funds futures imply two rate cuts by September (72% probability). These signals support the 'soft landing' scenario — favouring rate-sensitive groups like Real Estate and Utilities.

Example synthesis · prediction market signals mapped to macro scenarios
04

Your Holdings

How they're impacted

All of the above applied directly to the stocks you own. Upload your holdings and get a clear signal — add, hold, or exit — for every position.

Upload your stocks

Paste a list of tickers (NVDA, JPM, NEE, etc.) or upload a CSV. The signals are actionable portfolio decisions — designed to answer whether each position should be added to, held, or reduced.

Automatic GICS classification

Each ticker is classified to its GICS Industry Group — one of the 25 groups AlphaDrift scores. NVDA → Semiconductors. JPM → Banks. NEE → Utilities. An AI model handles the classification; you review and confirm each mapping before signals are applied.

Signals per stock

Each stock inherits its industry group's macro score and opportunity signal from Steps 1–3, weighted against the stock's own recent price behaviour:

AddGroup outlook strong, stock has dipped. Favourable entry point.
WatchGood group outlook, no strong entry catalyst yet. Monitor for weakness.
HoldNeutral signals — no compelling reason to add or reduce.
Dead WeightWeak group, stock quietly eroding. Exit on the next bounce.
ExitWeak macro outlook, stock has recently run up. Sell into the strength.
The signal is at the group level, not the stock level. AlphaDrift grades GICS Industry Groups — NVDA inherits the Semiconductors grade; JPM inherits the Banks grade. Individual stock selection is left to you. The system answers one question: given where the macro cycle is heading, does this holding belong in your portfolio right now?

Ready to find the divergence?

Open the dashboard to see today's macro scores across all 25 GICS Industry Groups.